On November 14, Bitcoin (BTC) traded near the $90,000 mark as it digested its latest all-time high. The price action was characterized by volatility, with BTC/USD hovering around the $93,483 record set on Bitstamp the day prior.
Background: US CPI Data
The United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October was released, showing a 2.6% increase, in line with expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed that despite the moderate inflation rate, it still rose from the previous month’s print. This development had implications for financial policy, with markets betting on another interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut Odds
According to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of an interest-rate cut in December stood at over 80% at the time of writing. This anticipation of a rate cut contributed to the steady price action in Bitcoin, with it managing to briefly thrust above the $90,000 mark.
Market Commentary
Crypto market commentators saw few macroeconomic hurdles standing in the way of further BTC price upside. Quinn Thompson, founder of hedge fund Lekker Capital, noted that the CPI data was "CPI in line" and had previously referred to it as a "nothingburger." He jokingly predicted that Bitcoin would reach $100k next week.
Michaël van de Poppe, trader, analyst, and entrepreneur, also agreed with the six-figure target. He highlighted that November 14 would see more data, including the Producer Price Index (PPI), which could further fuel the upward momentum in Bitcoin prices.
BTC Price Predictions
In his latest market analysis, trader Skew highlighted $95,000 as a "key supply zone" based on exchange order book liquidity. He noted that:
Flow is pretty slow & declining volume during asia session, typically lines up with a move in EU/US session
This suggests that the current price action may be setting up for a potential move in the European or US sessions.
Onchain Analysis
Onchained, a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, joined those anticipating more gains. In its Quicktake blog post on November 13, it noted:
Notably, the Onchained Top/Bottom Index had declined to the levels it registered during the $73,000 price point back in March, signaling significant room for potential upside
The result was that BTC/USD "could potentially rise from its current level of $93,000 to reach a peak between $180,000 and $200,000."
Conclusion
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
The current market conditions and the anticipation of an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve have contributed to the steady price action in Bitcoin. As the markets continue to bet on further gains, it is essential for investors to stay informed and make educated decisions.
Market Analysis Tools
- CPI 12-month % change: A chart showing the year-over-year percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
- Fed target rate probabilities: A graph displaying the probability of different Federal Reserve interest rates, based on data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
- Onchained Top/Bottom Index: A proprietary trading indicator developed by Onchained, which suggests that the top will be reached when the index falls within the 0 to 0.09 range.
Investment Considerations
- Every investment and trading move involves risk.
- Readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
- The current market conditions may not be indicative of future price movements.
- It is essential to stay informed and make educated decisions based on your individual financial goals and risk tolerance.
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