A weekly round-up of tanker and dry bulk market movements for March 7, 2025, shows a mixed but generally positive sentiment across major shipping segments. The Capesize market started the week with revived momentum, particularly in the Pacific, while other sectors experienced volatility and regional demand shifts. Across the board, tightening tonnage and shifting cargo flows drove rate movements, with some routes showing notable gains and others stabilizing after midweek fluctuations. As the week closed, the overall tone remained cautiously optimistic, underpinned by persistent demand in key origin-destination corridors and ongoing adjustments in fleet supply.
Capesize
The Capesize sector began the week with a confident uptick, leveraging last week’s momentum and pushing freight rates higher in several major routes. In the Pacific, rate levels on the C5 route surged past the US$10,000 mark, signaling a notable premium over the C3 route in the Atlantic. This surge reflected robust demand from the region’s key importers and a tightening of ballast options as vessels repositioned for upcoming cargoes. Yet, midweek unease emerged as C5 briefly slipped below the US$10,000 threshold before recovering slightly toward the end of the week, underscoring the inherent volatility in December-to-March trade cycles and the influence of miners’ activity in the Pacific corridor. The miners’ ongoing activity in the region kept inquiries buoyant, supporting sustained interest in fresh prompt cargoes.
In the South Atlantic, the market gained steady ground as the week progressed. Early April cargo demand from South Brazil and West Africa to China was particularly strong, reflecting persistent appetite from Chinese buyers and a preference to secure tonnage on the front end of the schedule. This demand helped push C3 rates toward the US$23.00 level, which effectively narrowed the premium gap relative to C5 and contributed to a more balanced Atlantic-Pacific dynamic. The North Atlantic observed moderate activity throughout the week, with a tightening of available tonnage contributing to supportive rate conditions. Overall, despite a period of midweek volatility, the Capesize market concluded the week on a positive note, aided by supportive factors in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins.
Tracking the week’s performance, the Baltic Capesize index (BCI) on the 5TC route rose by US$2,817 on the day, and the week’s overall gain stood at US$3,660, closing at US$20,084. This demonstrated that, despite fluctuations, the Capesize sector retained a constructive trajectory as end-users sought to lock in forward cargoes and operators managed ballast and laytime considerations amid a tightening supply pool.
The broader Capesize narrative painted a picture of a market balancing optimism with caution. While the Pacific’s premium levels and robust demand kept sentiment upbeat, the Atlantic’s rate sensitivity to tonnage availability and shifting cargo calendars introduced a degree of volatility. Fleet discipline and timely ballasting strategies emerged as critical levers for owners seeking to optimize returns, particularly given the potential for further dislocations as early shipments begin to materialize and port congestion dynamics evolve. In sum, Capesize activity maintained momentum, with the weekly close suggesting further upside potential should demand sustain and vessel supply remain constrained.
Panamax
Panamax activity remained healthy overall but navigated a turbulent week, characterized by divergent regional signals and a sense that the market may be consolidating before the next leg of demand materializes. While overall activity stayed robust, the week’s tone indicated a cautionary bend as traders weighed shifting patterns in Asia against more resilient volumes across the Atlantic corridors. The week closed with rates broadly flat to modestly softer in several routes, reflecting a delicate balance between demand supply and the persistent tonnage overhang that can moderate price trajectories in this segment.
In the Atlantic, volume spread across typical routes showed only marginal gains, with volumes improving gradually but not enough to decisively lift rates. The sentiment remained that the tonnage/demand spread was still exerting downward pressure on the more exposed routes, even as some smaller gains appeared on the back of firming cargo calendars. Asia, by contrast, softened gradually through the latter part of the week. While nothing drastic emerged, rates eroded as more ships found cover closer to the week’s end, suggesting a softening near-term outlook in some basins.
One bright spot came early in the week when a NoPac voyage, an 82,000-dwt vessel, achieved around US$12,500, a rate that provided a glimpse of green shoots in certain North Pacific trades. However, as the week wore on, the market trended toward the US$10,500 range, signaling easing pressures in some corridors even as appetite remained for longer period contracts in select cases. Period activity included a China-delivered 82,000-dwt vessel achieving US$14,000 per day on a one-year charter basis, underscoring interest in longer-term commitments as owners weighed the security of forward cash flows against ongoing market fluctuations. A scrubber-fitted 82,000-dwt vessel delivering in China achieved US$14,750 on a 5–7 month basis, indicating another facet of the market’s risk/return calculus as operators balanced compliance costs against potential fuel savings.
Overall, Panamax markets remained solid but vigilant, with some basins showing stronger baseline demand than others. The week’s close suggested continued interest in the sector, particularly for well-positioned vessels with shorter voyage calendars and access to prioritized cargoes, though the overall rate trend indicated limited upside pressure in the near term without a further positive surprise in global demand or a tightening of available tonnage.
Ultramax / Supramax
The Ultramax and Supramax segment presented a more mixed picture this week, reflecting regional variations in demand and the nuanced impact of Indonesian coal pricing on Asia-Pacific activity. The Atlantic region was described as largely positional, with demand seen from the Continent to the Mediterranean, yet rates largely held steady with limited upside momentum. In contrast, the Asia-Pacific market faced some headwinds as traders watched coal pricing dynamics and the broader macro environment, which led to a more subdued appetite for fresh fixtures and a cautious approach to booking.
In the North Atlantic and European corridors, a 63,000-dwt vessel fixed for a trip to India at rates around the upper US$10,000s, with a ballast bonus and other incentives modernized to reflect the demand environment. The market observed a pattern of balanced activity on a regional basis, with a 61,000-dwt vessel fixing in the upper US$12,000s plus a substantial ballast bonus, indicating a willingness to pay for premium routing and prompt execution. In the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia trades, demand was stronger in some pockets, with a 64,000-dwt vessel reporting a delivery Port Elizabeth trip to China at US$15,500 plus US$155,000 ballast bonus, illustrating how regional cargoes could support more favorable earnings on particular runs.
Period activity remained muted slightly, with a 63,000-dwt vessel reported fixed for 3 years at a rate of US$13,750, signaling a degree of interest in longer-term commitments for the ultramodern hulls that dominate these segments. The overall impression was of a market in transition, with modest improvements on certain routes yet a limited ability for widespread, sustained rate acceleration without additional tailwinds such as stronger demand in key origin regions or a sudden squeeze in tonnage availability.
Handysize
The Handysize market showed a mixed performance that highlighted regional contrasts across the Continent, the Mediterranean, and Asia. In the Continent and Mediterranean, activity appeared generally soft, with rates trending slightly below recent levels. One illustrative fixture involved a 37,000-dwt vessel fixed for delivery Otranto with redelivery North Coast South America at US$7,000, reflecting the pricing pressure that can accompany weaker demand in these routes when prompt cargoes and supply clocks collide. In the South Atlantic, inquiries for prompt vessels were limited, contributing to downward pressure on bids and hand-to-mouth trading conditions for smaller ships as owners weighed forward commitments against fluctuating cargo calendars.
In contrast, the U.S. Gulf market remained subdued, showing signs of weakening support while demand in other regions supported enough activity to anchor some rates. For example, a 37,000-dwt vessel fixed for delivery Dominican Republic and redelivery U.S. East Coast at US$8,500, illustrating the persistent regional differentiation that typifies Handysize markets as they absorb shifts in global demand patterns. Asia, however, painted a more positive picture. The cargo book in the region remained healthy, with a 37,000-dwt vessel fixed on a trip to redelivery Japan at US$11,000, indicating robust activity and a willingness among buyers to move smaller tonnage to meet rising Middle Eastern and Asian demand.
In sum, Handysize prices and activity were a tale of two halves—softening in Europe and the Americas while remaining resilient in Asia. The week’s performance underscored the carrier’s flexibility and the importance of regional cargo streams and port conditions in shaping daily earnings for smaller vessels.
Clean LR2MEG (LR2) and LR1MEG
The long-range tanker market on the MEG/UK-Continent and MEG/Japan routes showed signs of recovery in the LR2 segment, driven by improving activity and a firmer sense of forward demand. The 75,000-tonne MEG/Japan index, tracked through the TC1 route, advanced by 6.11 points to WS130, signaling stronger pickup on the MEG-to-Japan corridor. The TC20, representing the 90,000-tonne MEG/UK-Continent route, held near the US$3.3 million level for the typical time charter, reflecting a positive but cautious mood as owners priced in longer-term volatility.
West of Suez, in the Mediterranean and East LR2 markets, the cycle remained anchored around the US$2.85 million level for prevailing trades on the TC15 route after last week’s touchpoint, indicating persistence in the MEG-led trade flows into the Mediterranean and beyond. The movements in these indices collectively pointed to a broader renaissance in LR2 activity and a potential tightening of the supply-demand balance in long-haul, MEG-focused trades.
LR1MEG activity did not match the pace of the larger LR2 fleet this week, with the TC5 55,000 MEG/Japan index easing modestly to WS134.69. The voyage west on TC8, at 65,000 MEG/UK-Continent, dropped from US$2.73 million to US$2.67 million, signaling a softer sentiment for westbound MEG trades in the near term. The LR1 market across the UK-Continent remained lackluster, with the TC16 60,000 ARA/West Africa index retreating from WS123.61 to WS113.33, underscoring the throttled demand for LR1s relative to their larger LR2 peers.
The MEG MR sector, often viewed as a bridge between large LR2 and mid-range MR segments, displayed restlessness early in the week as the TC17 35,000 MEG/East Africa index peaked in the low WS220s before retreating to WS211.79. The correction suggested profit-taking by some participants and a recalibration of risk in the MEG market, even as overall activity remained supported by MEG-led flows and refinery demand in the East. The MR segment in the MEG zone remained a dynamic piece of the market, with variations in regional demand translating into fluctuating day rates that required careful navigation by owners and charterers alike.
MR (Medium Range) and USG Activity
Across the broader MR sector, particularly within the MEG region, the week’s dynamics were characterized by mixed momentum and shifting levels of activity. The MEG MR market showed periods of strength followed by retrenchment, reflecting the delicate balance between supply from LR2 and LR1 fleets and the demand from Middle East and North African refiners seeking clean fuels and middle distillates. In the US Gulf region, MR rates softened as activity slowed, a consequence of the seasonal lull and some inventory adjustments at port facilities that tempered immediate cargo needs. These contrasts highlighted how regional refiners and shipping players reacted to price signals and the time-sensitive nature of MEG-anchored trades, where refinery runs and maintenance schedules play substantial roles in shaping voyage economics.
The Baltic description’s round-trip TCE calculations showcased how the MR fleet’s profitability fluctuated with shifts in port calls, fuel costs, and ballast legs. The day rates on the TC2 route (37,000 dwt, ARA/US Atlantic coast) fell from WS152.5 to WS135, translating to a round-trip TCE around US$13,500 per day. Similarly, the TC19 route (37,000 dwt, ARA/West Africa) mirrored this downward adjustment, with the index landing at WS157.81 and implying a daily equivalent of US$19,216. The sector’s broader tone suggested caution around near-term earnings if demand did not pick up or if ballast considerations grew more restrictive.
In the USG, MR activity appeared to have bottomed out as a temporary plateau, with slower activity exerting downward pressure on freight levels. The TC14 (38,000 dwt, US Gulf/UK-Continent) slid from WS90 to WS85, and the TC18 (38,000 dwt, US Gulf/Brazil) fell by 7.85 points to WS137.86. A Caribbean run on TC21 (38,000 dwt, US Gulf/Caribbean) dropped by US$35,715 to US$403,571, underscoring how regional demand softness can ripple across the MR market and influence rates in adjoining trade lanes.
VLCC
The VLCC market maintained a steady rhythm for much of the week, with a notable exception on the US Gulf to China route. The 270,000 mt Middle East Gulf to China (TD3C) route hovered around last week’s levels in late-week assessments, trading at WS57.10 for a Round Voyage, corresponding to a round-trip TCE of roughly US$38,342 per day—about US$1,000 higher than the prior week. This relative resilience highlighted continued appetite for long-haul Persian Gulf-originating flows to the China market, leveraging tightened tonnage discipline to sustain rates in the face of seasonal headwinds.
In the Atlantic, 260,000 mt West Africa/China (TD15) slipped modestly by a point to WS58.50, yielding a round-trip TCE around US$40,633 per day and signaling a slight softening in that corridor as tonnage availability and voyage calendars influenced price formation. The 270,000 mt US Gulf/China (TD22) route, however, experienced a dramatic reversal, collapsing by US$767,500 over the week and stabilizing at US$7,280,000, equating to a daily round-trip TCE of roughly US$36,497—approximately US$4,700 per day lower than the previous period. The sharp contrast between these two long-haul routes underscored how regional demand dynamics and vessel positioning can drive rapid shifts in VLCC earnings across different geographies.
The market’s broader composition suggested a cautious but positive medium-term outlook for VLCCs, with the stronger performance on key long-haul runs offset by pockets of weakness tied to oversupply in other lanes and the ongoing adjustments in global crude trade patterns. As long as demand remains resilient in the Gulf to East Asia corridor and new inquiries keep pace with available tonnage, VLCCs could stabilize near current highs, albeit with continued sensitivity to rate volatility driven by macroeconomic cues and refinery maintenance cycles.
Suezmax
Suezmax players sought to push rates higher this week, attempting to pull freight levels back to more favorable territory after earlier softness. The 130,000 mt Nigeria/UK Continent voyage (TD20) saw a rate increase of 2.5 points to WS87.83, translating into a daily round-trip TCE of about US$36,548. Similarly, the 130,000 mt Guyana to UK Continent route (TD27) advanced by a point to WS85.83, yielding a TCE around US$35,061 per day based on discharge in Rotterdam. These upticks reflected a sense of renewed confidence as demand in key West African crude streams remained supportive, even as freight markets elsewhere exhibited more volatility.
On the CPC/Med corridor, the TD6 route (135,000 mt CPC/Med) inched higher by one point to WS100.9, producing a robust daily TCE of roughly US$39,838 for round trips. In the Middle East, the TD23 route (140,000 mt ME Gulf to the Mediterranean via Suez) rose by 1.5 points to just over WS91, signaling that the region’s longer-haul trades were continuing to attract interest and maintain a healthy rate structure. The combination of steady demand and selective rate improvements suggested Suezmaxes could maintain a constructive lane-by-lane dynamic as carriers optimize ballast and schedule alignment with refinery repair cycles and crude intake patterns.
Aframax
In the North Sea and broader European waters, Aframax rates showed modest adjustments with some softening, particularly across cross-UK Continent trades. The 80,000 mt Cross-UK Continent route (TD7) traded in a narrower range around WS107.5–110, yielding a round-trip TCE near US$27,000 per day when routing from Hound Point to Wilhelmshaven. The 80,000 mt Cross-Mediterranean route (TD19) dropped by approximately 3.5 points to WS121.28, translating into a daily TCE near US$29,733, slightly below the week’s earlier levels. This reflects a combination of seasonal demand fluctuations and the ongoing balance between regional supply and cargo calendar timing.
Across the Atlantic, the 70,000 mt East Coast Mexico/US Gulf route (TD26) and the 70,000 mt Covenas/US Gulf route (TD9) faced pressure as stem cancellations and vessel descheduling in Mexico added oil price- and refinery-driven headwinds. Both routes saw significant rate reductions, with TD26 at WS132.78 (about US$25,687 daily TCE) and TD9 at WS130.94 (around US$24,833 daily TCE). The trans-Atlantic 70,000 mt US Gulf/UK Continent route (TD25) experienced a sharper decline, dropping 15 points to WS143.89, which implied a round-trip TCE of about US$34,447 per day on Houston/Rotterdam. The narrative here pointed to a market recalibration as owners navigated through a mix of cancellations, port dislocations, and shifting cargo calendars.
LNG
LNG freight markets continued their positive momentum with further rate gains across major routes for both 160,000 cubic meter and 174,000 cubic meter class tonnage, driven by tightening tonnage and robust demand in key markets. On the BLNG1 route, linking Gladstone to Tokyo, 174,000 cbm carriers posted a US$2,500 increase, with rates reaching US$18,200 per day. This development reinforced the optimistic sentiment in the Pacific, where fundamental demand remained supportive of longer-term earnings for larger LNG carriers.
In the 160,000 cbm segment, rates rose by US$1,500 to US$10,500 per day, signaling continued improvement for the smaller LNG vessels and a broadening of the recovery across fleet size classes. In the Atlantic, the BLNG2 route from Sabine to the UK Continent saw 174,000 cbm ships rise by US$1,900 to close at US$19,800 per day, while 160,000 cbm vessels gained US$1,200, reaching US$11,100 per day, underscoring a symmetrical uplift that reinforced the overall upward trajectory. The BLNG3 route, Sabine to Tokyo, showed a divergence: 174,000 cbm increased by US$1,800 to US$23,800 per day, while 160,000 cbm declined by US$200 to US$13,000 per day. This split suggests some pressure on smaller tonnage earnings despite broad market strength, possibly due to shifting cargo baselines or port constraints affecting vessel selection.
The term market for LNG climbed as well, with six-month rates rising by US$2,150 to US$18,150, one-year rates up by US$650 to US$23,075, and three-year rates increasing by US$2,750 to US$49,500. These movements reflected sustained demand and tightening supply across the LNG fleet, signaling a bullish outlook that could persist if redelivery patterns remain constrained and new supply additions lag behind demand growth. With rates trending upward, the Atlantic market appeared particularly buoyant, though the overall trajectory depends on continued tonnage discipline and the evolution of global gas markets.
LPG
The LPG segment remained relatively flat week over week, largely due to most market participants being in Tokyo, with only modest fluctuations across the principal routes. On the BLPG1 Ras Tanura–Chiba corridor, rates rose by US$1.25 to settle at US$46.25, while TCE earnings followed with an uptick of US$2,656 to US$29,070. In the Atlantic, the BLPG2 Houston–Flushing route experienced a slight decline of US$1.00, closing at US$48.50, while TCE earnings saw only a marginal improvement of US$46 to US$45,171. The BLPG3 Houston–Chiba route posted a US$2.00 decrease in rates to US$92.33, with TCE earnings stabilizing around US$29,604.
Overall, LPG activity remained subdued, with only a limited number of cargoes moving through the market during the week. Market participants anticipated a potential resurgence once activity resumes to normal levels after the Tokyo gathering and the return of broader market players to active trading floors. The week’s muted pace reflected the broader caution across the LPG segment as traders evaluated seasonal demand patterns and refinery intake schedules in the near term.
Conclusion
The March 7, 2025, Baltic Exchange market snapshot illustrates a nuanced, sector-by-sector landscape in which freight rates reflect shifting cargo flows, regional demand dynamics, and fleet discipline. Capesize markets displayed resilient momentum with Pacific gains and a tightening in ballast conditions that supported higher rates, while the Panamax segment faced a more mixed environment with regional variability and midweek softness in Asia offset by occasional strong fixtures. Ultramax and Supramax showed a bifurcated pattern—strong in some pockets and subdued in others—driven by Indonesian coal pricing and regional demand shifts. Handysize remained a study in regional dichotomy, with Asia staying firm while Europe and the Americas faced softer conditions. The LR2/MEG/LR1MEG space signaled recovery potential in long-haul trades, even as LR1 trails showed a softer near-term outlook. MR segments across MEG and USG displayed a mix of strength and softness, underscoring the sensitivity of mid-sized tankers to refinery demand and regional tonnage flows. VLCCs demonstrated selective resilience, with long-haul routes holding up better than some Atlantic corridors, while Suezmax routes experienced targeted rate improvements on key lanes. Aframax movements highlighted regional variations and ongoing adjustments to cancellations and cargo calendars. LNG and LPG markets mirrored a broader sense of cautious optimism, with LNG leads showing robust gains on major routes and LPG trading at a steadier pace. Taken together, the week underscored the importance of fleet positioning, cargo calendars, and regional demand signals in shaping near-term earnings across the global shipping landscape. As more redeliveries re-enter the market and supply tightens on key routes, rates could maintain an upward bias, though the risk of a pullback remains if demand softens or new tonnage enters the market more rapidly than anticipated.
