Introduction
Markus Thielen, 10x Research’s head of research, has expressed cautious optimism regarding the future of Ethereum (ETH) as an investment. He believes that while Bitcoin (BTC) may offer more attractive returns over a bull run in 2025, Ethereum could underperform Bitcoin in this medium term.
Analyst Opinions and Market Sentiment
Multiple analysts have echoed Thielen’s sentiments, with many pointing to the volatility of Ethereum as one reason for its limited performance compared to Bitcoin. Thielen specifically mentioned that Ethereum’s growth rate of validators has turned negative, dropping by about 1% over the past 30 days, which he believes indicates an increasing risk of validators exiting the network.
Key Metrics and Upgrades
Active Validators Metric
Thielen emphasized the importance of monitoring active validators in 2025. He noted that a potential rise in unstaking could be seen as ‘logical,’ given Ethereum’s apparent lack of real demand outside of staking. However, others may disagree with this perspective.
Recent Upgrades and Their Impact
Thielen criticized the Duncan upgrade, which was rolled out three months too late to capture the peak of the memecoin rally. He argued that the market had already shifted toward more cost-effective alternatives like SOLana (SOL). Additionally, he expressed skepticism about the upcoming Pectra upgrade, due to be introduced in early 2025.
Eth price Performance Against Bitcoin
Historical Price Performance
From January 1, 2024, Bitcoin saw a 121.4% increase, while Ethereum only managed a 46.3% return during the same period, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Market Sentiment and ETF Launches
Bitcoin ETFs launched in the U.S. saw inflows of $35.3 billion by mid-February, leading to significant price gains. In contrast, Ethereum ETF launches experienced much lower demand, with only $2.66 billion flowing into them by July 2024.
Analyst Predictions and Speculative Views
Relative Strength to Bitcoin
Thielen expressed mixed views on ETH/BTC ratios, noting that he wouldn’t be surprised if the ratio broke through 0.04 in January 2025. At the time of publication, the ratio stood at 0.03571 according to TradingView data.
Bullish Views
Magazine contributor and Bitcoin payments are being undermined by centralized stablecoins. However, there is growing interest in the potential for Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin in a post-Bitcoin world, with some analysts predicting significant gains.
Market Trends and Moving News
Recent Developments
- The ongoing debate among analysts about Ethereum’s potential as an investment continues to be a key driver of market sentiment.
- The impact of recent upgrades on network performance and security remains a topic of discussion in the crypto community.
Conclusion
Markus Thielen’s analysis underscores the challenges facing Ethereum as an investment, particularly relative to Bitcoin’s demonstrated strength over the past year. While there are speculative elements suggesting potential for growth, the risks associated with validator exit rates and market shifts toward alternative platforms remain significant.
This article is for general information purposes only and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of Cointelegraph.
